Eastern Mediterranean: From Obscurity to the Forefront of the Energy War in the 21st Century
Eastern Mediterranean: From Obscurity to the Forefront of the Energy War in the 21st Century
Historical Review
The Eastern Mediterranean has always been a nexus of civilizations and power struggles. For millennia it served as a crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, witnessing the rise and fall of great empires. Ottoman dominance over the region for centuries was followed by colonial influences and the emergence of modern nation-states in the 20th century. This turbulent history left enduring fault lines: the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 amidst regional conflict, the division of Cyprus following the Turkish invasion of 1974, and the protracted rivalry between Greece and Turkey over Aegean and Mediterranean boundaries. Each of these historical episodes has left a deep imprint on contemporary geopolitical dynamics, setting the stage for the Eastern Mediterranean to re-emerge as a focal point of international interest in the 21st century.
Geopolitics and International Relations
In recent years, the Eastern Mediterranean has been thrust into the global political spotlight due to its strategic location and evolving power dynamics. Geographically, this region forms an intersection of strategic sea lanes and energy routes connecting the Middle East to Europe. It lies at the heart of broader geopolitical contests, including great-power rivalries and the security architecture of the Middle East. The region’s stability (or lack thereof) directly affects international interests – from NATO’s security considerations to European Union energy diversification and global trade passing through the Suez Canal. As a result, world powers like the United States, Russia, and the EU closely monitor developments in the Eastern Mediterranean, and regional states increasingly view their foreign relations through a geopolitical lens. Long-standing alliances are being tested and new partnerships formed as countries respond to the shifting balance of power and the opportunities and challenges arising in this strategically vital area.
EEZ Disputes
A major source of tension in the Eastern Mediterranean today revolves around disputes over Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and maritime boundaries. Competing claims to undersea territories have led to diplomatic standoffs and legal disagreements among the coastal states. Greece and Turkey remain at odds over maritime delimitation, particularly in areas around the Greek islands close to Turkey’s coast. Ankara contests the extent of Greek islands’ maritime rights, arguing the Eastern Mediterranean’s semi-enclosed nature warrants a different approach to EEZ delineation – a stance not recognized by Greece or international maritime law as codified in the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea). Likewise, Turkey does not acknowledge the Republic of Cyprus’s declared EEZ, asserting rights on behalf of the Turkish Cypriot community in the island’s north and staking its own claims to portions of what Cyprus and Greece consider their maritime zones. Additional EEZ disputes have involved other states as well: until a recent U.S.-brokered agreement in 2022, Israel and Lebanon contested a triangular area of offshore waters rich in gas prospects, illustrating how undefined boundaries can spur contention. Moreover, Turkey’s controversial maritime boundary accord with Libya’s Tripoli-based government in 2019, which sought to carve out a large zone overlapping Greek and Cypriot claims, further inflamed regional disagreements. In short, overlapping EEZ claims in the Eastern Mediterranean have created a complex puzzle of asserted rights and jurisdictions, with legal principles and national interests colliding and heightening the risk of conflict if not peacefully resolved.
Energy Resources and Economic Claims
The discovery of significant hydrocarbon reserves under the Eastern Mediterranean seabed has added an economic dimension to the geopolitical calculus. Over the past decade, a series of natural gas fields were identified, promising substantial energy wealth. Israel was the first to strike gas: the Tamar field was found in 2009 followed by the giant Leviathan field in 2010, transforming Israel from an energy-poor state into a potential gas exporter. Close on their heels, Cyprus discovered the Aphrodite gas field in 2011 within its EEZ, sparking hopes that the small island nation could join the ranks of gas-producing countries. In 2015, Egypt’s discovery of the massive Zohr field – one of the largest in the Mediterranean – further underscored the region’s energy potential and shifted Cairo’s position to that of a gas exporter. Each of these finds has enticed Eastern Mediterranean countries to stake strong economic claims over maritime zones believed to contain additional untapped reserves. The prospect of billions of dollars in revenue and improved energy security is a powerful motivator, driving coastal states to assert their rights vigorously. Plans for exploiting these resources have emerged, most notably proposals for the EastMed pipeline that would transport gas from Israel and Cyprus through Greece to Europe. Such projects, if realized, could turn the Eastern Mediterranean into an important energy corridor, diversifying Europe’s gas supply while boosting local economies. However, the rush to claim undersea riches has also intensified disagreements – nations like Turkey, left out of recent gas bonanzas, challenge the legitimacy of agreements (for example, those delineating Cypriot and Greek drilling blocks) and insist on a share of the economic benefits. Thus, the newfound energy resources, while economically promising, have become entwined with national pride and economic nationalism, fueling disputes as each state seeks to maximize its gain from the Eastern Mediterranean’s subsea wealth.
Turkey’s Shift and Regional Reactions
Turkey’s recent strategic shift has been a defining factor in Eastern Mediterranean tensions. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has adopted an increasingly assertive and independent foreign policy, pivoting away from its earlier alignment with the West. In the context of the Eastern Mediterranean, this shift has been characterized by the doctrine of “Blue Homeland,” which envisions Turkey as a dominant maritime power claiming expansive rights in surrounding seas. Frustrated by what it perceives as exclusion from regional energy developments and alliances, Ankara in the late 2010s began to actively challenge the status quo. It dispatched research vessels and drilling ships, escorted by naval units, into contested waters near Cyprus and near Greek islands, directly defying the EEZ claims of its neighbors. This muscular approach marked a departure from prior diplomacy-first tactics and prompted strong regional reactions. Greece responded by reinforcing its military preparedness and engaging in high-profile naval exercises with partners, while Cyprus issued international arrest warrants for unauthorized drilling in its waters. Other countries, notably Israel and Egypt, grew wary of Turkey’s moves as well; although not directly clashing with Ankara, they lent diplomatic support to Greece and Cyprus’s positions. The Turkish-Libyan maritime deal of 2019, which ignored Greek islands and drew a bilateral boundary cutting across Greek maritime areas, alarmed the region and the EU, triggering a wave of condemnations and pushing Athens and Cairo to sign their own EEZ agreement in 2020 as a counter-measure. Overall, Turkey’s strategic pivot toward a more confrontational stance has isolated it from former partners and galvanized an opposing regional bloc. Even traditional alliances – for instance, Turkey’s once-close relations with Israel – suffered during this period, although recently Ankara has shown interest in mending ties. Regional reactions to Turkey’s behavior have thus ranged from diplomatic isolation and formal complaints in international forums, to the formation of new cooperative alignments explicitly designed to balance Turkish influence.
Strategic Alliances
Amid the growing friction, Eastern Mediterranean states have pursued strategic alliances to safeguard their interests and enhance their security. Smaller countries in particular have banded together, recognizing that multilateral cooperation can amplify their voice and deter unilateral challenges. These alliances are often built around shared concerns and mutual benefits, such as energy collaboration, defense coordination, and political support on the international stage. Greece and Cyprus, both feeling direct pressure from Turkey’s claims, have been at the forefront of alliance-building efforts. They have leveraged their status as EU members and their geostrategic positions to cultivate partnerships with neighboring states likewise invested in regional stability. The result is an emerging network of cooperative agreements and forums that is reshaping the power balance in the Eastern Mediterranean. This web of alliances serves not only as a counterweight to aggressive actions but also as a framework for collective economic projects, like joint pipelines and electricity interconnections, which bind the member countries together in pursuit of common goals. In essence, strategic alliances have become the currency of Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics – a means for nations to project strength through unity and to present a united front in the face of shared challenges.
Role of the US and EU
The United States and the European Union play pivotal roles in the Eastern Mediterranean’s geopolitical chessboard. The U.S., although not a littoral state, has long-standing interests in the region’s stability: it seeks to support allies, maintain freedom of navigation, and prevent any single power from dominating the Eastern Med’s energy and shipping lanes. In recent years Washington has actively engaged with regional initiatives – for example, endorsing the “3+1” format that links the U.S. with the trilateral partnership of Greece, Cyprus, and Israel for dialogue on energy and security issues. American diplomacy was also instrumental in mediating disputes, as seen in the successful brokering of the Israel–Lebanon maritime boundary agreement. At the same time, the U.S. has cautioned Turkey against provocative actions and, in certain instances, imposed or threatened targeted sanctions (such as for Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles) which, while not directly about Eastern Mediterranean gas, underscore Washington’s willingness to exert pressure in response to regional behavior that it views as destabilizing.
The European Union, for its part, has a direct stake given that two of its member states (Greece and Cyprus) are deeply involved in Eastern Med disputes. The EU has repeatedly affirmed its solidarity with its members, calling on Turkey to respect international law and Cypriot sovereign rights. Brussels has periodically considered and implemented measures against Turkey’s unauthorized drilling – including travel bans and asset freezes on certain Turkish individuals and companies involved. Beyond sanctions, the EU is also involved in positive integration efforts: it supports the diversification of energy supply sources, and Eastern Mediterranean gas could contribute to European energy security and climate transition goals. The EU and its members (France, Italy, etc.) have joined or observed regional forums like the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, signaling political support for multilateral cooperation. Moreover, individual European powers have stepped up their presence – for example, France has conducted joint military exercises with Greece and bolstered defense ties to underscore its commitment to regional stability. In summary, both the U.S. and the EU act as external stabilizing forces and occasional arbiters in the Eastern Mediterranean. They provide diplomatic backing to cooperative initiatives and seek to dissuade escalatory moves, all while balancing their broader strategic interests in relation to Russia, the Middle East, and energy security.
Economic Significance of Gas Fields
The economic significance of the Eastern Mediterranean’s gas fields is potentially transformative for the region. For the countries that have discovered these resources, the finds promise not only a new revenue stream but also enhanced energy independence and geopolitical leverage. Israel, for example, has moved from energy import-dependence to a position of exporter, supplying natural gas to neighboring countries and thereby strengthening economic ties and its own coffers. Cyprus views the Aphrodite field and other prospects as crucial to its future economic development, hoping to establish itself as an energy hub despite its modest size. Egypt, with the giant Zohr field and existing LNG infrastructure, envisions revitalizing its economy by becoming a regional gas processing and export center. Greece, while it has yet to make comparable discoveries in its waters, stands to gain from transit projects like the proposed EastMed pipeline and from exploration in the Ionian and Cretan seas, which could yield reserves in the future.
International energy companies – including American, European, and Russian firms – have also invested heavily in exploration and development across the Eastern Mediterranean, underscoring the global commercial interest at play. The influx of foreign capital and technology associated with these projects could stimulate job creation and ancillary industries in the host countries. If managed prudently, the gas wealth could fund infrastructure, education, or sovereign wealth investments, giving Eastern Mediterranean states a significant economic boost. There are, however, caveats: exploiting offshore gas is capital-intensive and time-consuming, and fluctuating global energy prices along with competition from other gas producers can impact profitability. Additionally, the unresolved territorial disputes pose a risk to full commercial exploitation – companies are cautious about operating in contested blocks, and pipelines require political as well as financial feasibility. Nonetheless, the lure of the Eastern Mediterranean’s gas riches continues to drive economic calculations. For Europe, these fields represent a potential alternative source of natural gas, one that could help reduce reliance on other suppliers and enhance energy supply diversity. In sum, the gas fields carry immense economic significance: they have the capacity to reshape national economies and alter energy trade patterns, but realizing that potential will depend on political stability and regional cooperation as much as geology.
Frictions and Claims
The overlapping claims and burgeoning energy ambitions have led to frequent frictions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Naval patrols and survey ships from rival states often operate in proximity, turning the waters south of Cyprus and around Greek islands into arenas of brinkmanship. In 2020, tensions between Greece and Turkey escalated dangerously when Turkey’s research vessel Oruc Reis, accompanied by warships, conducted seismic surveys in waters near the Greek island of Kastellorizo – an area Athens claims as its continental shelf. Greece responded by deploying its navy, and a collision between a Turkish frigate and a Greek frigate narrowly avoided sparking a larger confrontation. Similar friction emerged off Cyprus: Turkish drilling vessels entered blocks licensed by the Cypriot government to foreign energy companies, prompting diplomatic protests from Nicosia and statements of concern from the EU and US. Each side accuses the other of violating its sovereignty: Turkey insists it is defending its rights and those of Turkish Cypriots to a fair share of resources, while Greece and Cyprus denounce Turkey’s actions as illegal incursions into their internationally recognized zones.
Beyond the headline-grabbing standoffs at sea, there are also legal and diplomatic contests. Competing maps of maritime boundaries are brandished at the United Nations; proposals for resolving disputes via international courts or arbitration are floated but not yet embraced by all parties. The continuous military exercises and reciprocal shows of force further underscore the volatility of the situation. Even countries not directly in conflict feel the strain: for instance, Israel’s gas export plans by pipeline or electricity cable through Cyprus and Greece implicitly demand a stable environment, which periodic flare-ups threaten to undermine. Meanwhile, local publics and media often react with nationalism, putting pressure on governments not to appear soft on core sovereignty issues. All these factors create a fraught atmosphere. The frictions in the Eastern Mediterranean are not merely bilateral issues but part of a wider pattern of contestation – essentially a mosaic of interlocking disputes where a provocation in one corner (say, off the coast of Libya or near Crete) can rapidly draw in other actors. Without a mutually accepted framework to manage and eventually resolve these claims, such incidents will likely recur, perpetuating a cycle of tension that risks miscalculation or crisis.
Strategic Alliances in the Region
In response to the challenges, an array of strategic alliances has solidified among Eastern Mediterranean countries, aiming to promote cooperation and balance competing interests. The most notable alliances and frameworks include:
- Greece–Cyprus–Israel Trilateral: Over the past decade, Greece, the Republic of Cyprus, and Israel have developed a close partnership anchored in regular trilateral summits. This alliance focuses on energy collaboration (such as plans for the EastMed gas pipeline and regional electricity interconnections), as well as security coordination and tourism and technology initiatives. It marks a significant realignment, especially given Israel’s earlier strategic ties with Turkey, and underscores the mutual benefits these three democracies seek through deeper ties.
- Greece–Cyprus–Egypt Trilateral: In parallel, Greece and Cyprus have also strengthened ties with Egypt, holding frequent three-way meetings at the highest level. This trilateral cooperation covers energy – for example, agreements on gas pipelines from East Med fields to Egypt’s LNG facilities – and extends to topics of regional security, counterterrorism, and economic development. Egypt’s involvement highlights the Eastern Mediterranean’s link to broader Middle Eastern politics and Cairo’s role as a key stakeholder in regional stability.
- East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF): Headquartered in Cairo, the EMGF was established in 2019 as a multilateral platform including Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority (with France joining later and the US as an observer). This forum aims to foster a regional gas market and encourage cooperation in developing gas resources. Notably, Turkey is absent from the EMGF, which many observers interpret as a diplomatic front solidifying the alignment of the other Eastern Mediterranean actors. Through the EMGF, member states coordinate policies on resource development and export options, demonstrating how energy has catalyzed institution-building in the region.
These alliances, alongside enhanced bilateral ties such as those between Greece and France or Israel and Egypt, have gradually woven a network of collaboration that raises the costs of unilateral aggression. Joint military exercises (for instance, the annual “INIOCHOS” air force drills or “MEDUSA” naval exercises) now frequently involve multiple regional partners training together, signalling collective resolve. While the coalition of Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt is not a formal defense pact, it represents a strategic entente grounded in shared interests in stability, respect for international law, and the benefit of economic interdependence. Over time, these partnerships could serve as the foundation for a more inclusive regional security architecture – one that might even accommodate Turkey, should its policy orientation change to a more cooperative stance. For now, however, the strategic alliance structure in the Eastern Mediterranean draws a clear line between those states committed to multilateral cooperation and the one regional power that currently remains on the outside.
Future of the Eastern Mediterranean
The future of the Eastern Mediterranean will depend on the interplay of cooperation and competition in the coming years. On the one hand, there is a hopeful vision: one where diplomatic engagement and respect for international law allow for the peaceful delimitation of maritime boundaries and the joint development of resources. In this scenario, all regional players could benefit from the Mediterranean’s riches – for example, through revenue-sharing arrangements or unitization agreements for cross-border gas fields – thereby turning potential flashpoints into opportunities for collaboration. The integration of energy infrastructure, such as pipelines and electricity grids, might bind the economies of Eastern Mediterranean countries together, fostering interdependence that incentivizes peace. Recent positive steps, like the resolution of the Israel–Lebanon EEZ dispute and Turkey’s tentative efforts in 2023–2024 to re-open dialogue with former rivals, suggest that diplomacy can yield results even after prolonged stalemate.
On the other hand, a more pessimistic trajectory cannot be ruled out. If nationalist fervor and zero-sum thinking continue to dominate, the region could remain a hotbed of tension. The contest over energy resources might escalate into open confrontation, whether at sea or through proxy conflicts. A failure to compromise on EEZ disagreements – for instance, if Turkey persists in its maximalist claims or if other parties refuse to consider creative solutions – would likely perpetuate naval standoffs and military buildups. Such a climate of hostility could scare away investment in gas projects and delay or derail the full economic potential of the discoveries, leaving all parties worse off. External factors will also influence the region’s future. The global shift toward renewable energy and reduced fossil fuel reliance over the next few decades could either alleviate the intensity of the “energy war” – by diminishing the value of gas reserves – or conversely prompt a last-minute scramble to extract and monetize resources before they lose value. Similarly, great-power involvement (by the US, EU, China, or Russia) will shape whether the Eastern Mediterranean sees more cooperative security arrangements or becomes further fragmented by competing patronage and influence.
Ultimately, the Eastern Mediterranean’s fate hinges on whether the countries surrounding it can build a framework of mutual respect and shared benefit. If they succeed, the region could transform into a pillar of stability and prosperity, leveraging its strategic position and natural wealth for the good of all its peoples. If they fail, the Eastern Mediterranean will remain a cautionary tale of how rich resources and strategic geography can just as easily fuel division as they can foster unity. The coming years – and the choices made by regional leaders – will determine which of these futures materializes.
